Nigel Farage: Reform run could damage Welsh Tory hopes – expert

The poll by YouGov for Cardiff University and ITV Cymru Wales put Labour at 45% of the vote, up three points from a previous poll in December, and the Conservatives at 18% of the vote, down two points.

Reform were at 13%, up one point, while Plaid Cymru were down three points to 12%,

The Liberal Democrats were put at 5%, down two points, and the Greens were up one point to 4%.

YouGov spoke to 1,066 people from 30 May to 3 June this year.

Dr Larner said the polling position for Reform UK was “almost identical” to the party’s predecessor, the Brexit Party, in 2019.

He said by this point in the campaign in 2019 “the Brexit Party had seen their polling position halve in Wales”.

“This time there has been no similar decline and, if anything, their support has risen in the last 12 months,” he said.

Surveys say the “big losers” from Reform’s rise are the Conservatives, he said.

“Recent polling in Wales suggests somewhere between a quarter and a third of previous Conservative voters are planning to vote for the party,” Dr Larner added.

“This, combined with the moderate increase in Labour support across Wales, is what makes this election a worrying prospect for the Conservatives who successfully won over many Leave voters in Wales in 2019.”

Mr Farage had proved “incredibly popular” in previous surveys with around 20% of the electorate, Mr Larner said, and “very unpopular among the rest”.

“Farage also guarantees continued media coverage,” he added.

“It’s possible that this makes the Reform vote even more stubborn, further damaging Conservative hopes in Wales.”