US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in response.
The strait is a key transport route for oil and gas produced by Gulf states and the reduced supply caused prices to rise across energy markets.
The Ulster Bank’s monthly growth tracker is a useful way to assess how this fed through to local businesses.
It suggests that business activity effectively stalled in April and then fell sharply in May.
The May report shows business activity suffered its steepest contraction since December 2022, with NI registering the worst performance of all 12 UK regions.
For the first time in nearly three and years, local firms were, on balance, pessimistic about future growth prospects.
Some of this has also been seen in the HMRC jobs data.
Payrolls fell in March before rising marginally to just above 820,000 in April and May. The figures also suggest that pay growth stalled in May.
BBC News
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