General election 2024: Is the Conservative manifesto a game-changer?

In short this is a manifesto in Rishi Sunak’s image.

Not surprising really, you might say, he is the Conservative leader and fair point — but let me flesh out what I mean.

It feels like a document that encapsulates what you might call Sunakian Conservatism.

His allies would say the fundamentals of that are deliverable, pragmatic, thought-through ideas, not flashy for their own sake but sensible.

His critics within the party are already saying they are insufficiently bold, grabby or game-changey – when a game-changer is so desperately needed, if even possible.

“Doubt any of this will make a blind bit of difference,” one senior Tory texts me.

Before adding, “Should have gone for a tax cut that would have some cut through. These won’t. ECHR language is completely pointless. It is unreformable and we should be leaving.”

A final thought: there is an undercurrent to public utterances and social media adverts from the Conservatives now, to match their private musings.

It is an undercurrent which acknowledges the possibility, even the likelihood of defeat.

That is not to say for a moment they are giving up – we are three weeks into this campaign with the three most important weeks still to come.

But a framing is emerging from the Tories which acknowledges maximising Conservative support may be about minimising a Labour victory, not preventing it.