Scotland’s fiscal outlook messy and painful

There is also the structural problem that the budget for pay sends a strong signal to workers’ negotiators. Had Shona Robison put a more realistic 4 to 5% into her budget, that’s what unions would have aimed at.

The 3% limit was a statement of intent, at least until the pay bill broke through it, requiring the Scottish government – in the absence of substantial borrowing powers – to cut elsewhere.

That process has begun already – a recruitment freeze, axing the external communications budget, funds for councils to spend on nature restoration, flood prevention and electronic tablets for the “digitally excluded”.

Next week, Shona Robison moves on from these capital spending funds to the day-to-day budgets, and they could hurt more.

But taking the longer view, Prof Graeme Roy, the former Scottish government civil servant who chairs the Fiscal Commission, is calling for a more strategic approach to public sector employment and pay, allowing for better planning and more transparency.