Trump’s record in office is a mixed one when it comes to the Middle East.
On the one hand he pleased Israel and upset the Arab world by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital as well as Israel’s annexation of the occupied Golan Heights. But he also secured the Abraham Accords in 2020 which saw the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco establish full diplomatic relations with Israel and Sudan agree to do so.
Trump was, and is, hawkish on Iran.
In 2018, he pulled the US out of the Iran nuclear deal, the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Calling it “the worst deal in history”, he shared the views of many governments in the region that the deal, aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, failed to tackle Iran’s ballistic missile programme while enriching the Revolutionary Guards with money then used to fund proxy militias around the region.
In 2020, to Iran’s fury but to the satisfaction of many in the Gulf Arab states, Trump ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force.
But today’s Middle East is not the same as the one when Trump left the White House.
Israel is at war with Hamas and Hezbollah, and exchanged blows with both the Houthis in Yemen and their backers in Iran.
Under the Biden administration US influence in the region is seen to have waned with a White House largely ineffective at restraining its close ally, Israel, as it wages war in Gaza and Lebanon.
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