Is the UN warning of 3.1C global warming a surprise?

The headlines are pretty grim – without action the world could warm by a massive 3.1C this century, the UN says in a new report published today.

But how likely is that?

As is often the case with climate change and the science behind it – the answer is complicated.

The UN Emissions Gap report indicates that if only “current policies” are implemented the world could warm by up to 3.1C.

This would be “catastrophic” for the world according to the UN, leading to dramatic increases in extreme weather events including heatwaves and floods.

Working outside under that level of warming would be extremely difficult if not impossible.

But that number isn’t strictly new, and has to be seen in context.

The UN’s predictions of temperature rise have stayed essentially the same over the past three years since countries met in Glasgow for COP26.

The new report says: “A continuation of current policies is estimated to limit global warming to a maximum of 3.1C (range 1.9-3.8C) over the course of the century.”

This figure is in line with a projection from the most recent IPCC report from 2021 which showed a rise of up to 3.6C of warming this century under a higher level of emissions.

Today’s report says that if countries put into action the promises they have already made in their carbon cutting plans then temperatures will rise by 2.6C to 2.8C.

And if every country puts these plans into action and follows through on their existing net zero pledges, the Emissions Gap report says the rise could be contained to 1.9C.

These cooler scenarios are obviously far from guaranteed and let’s be clear – even a rise of 1.9C would be disastrous. We’ve heated our planet by 1.1C so far and we’re feeling the effects on so many levels, not least an increase in extreme weather and rising sea levels.