How Hurricane Milton and Helene conspiracy theories took over social media

Most of the viral misinformation has come from social media profiles which have blue ticks and a track-record for sharing conspiracy theories. Several accounts which spread Hurricane Milton misinformation this week had previously shared posts suggesting real-life events were staged or rigged, from elections to political violence, the pandemic and wars.

I messaged dozens of accounts which shared false and misleading posts on X related to both hurricanes. Their accounts seemed to be able to go viral precisely because of changes made at X since Elon Musk became owner. While the blue-check used to be given out only to people who had been verified and vetted, users are now allowed to purchase these ticks. The algorithm, in turn, gives their posts greater prominence. They can also then profit from sharing posts, regardless of whether they are true or not.

X’s revenue sharing policy means that blue-tick users can earn a share of revenue from the ads in their replies. On 9 October, the site announced that “payouts are increasing”, and accounts would now be paid based on engagement from other users who pay to get Premium membership, not the adverts in their responses.

This has incentivised some users to share whatever it is that will go viral – however untrue. Several of those I messaged acknowledged to me that they benefitted from getting engagement from their posts and sharing content they know will get attention.

It’s true, most social media companies allow users to make money from views. But YouTube, TikTok, Instagram and Facebook have guidelines which allow them to de-monetise or suspend profiles that post content that spreads misinformation, and say they label posts when they are misleading. X does not have guidelines on misinformation in the same way.

While it has rules against faked AI content and “Community Notes” to add context to posts, it removed a previous feature which allowed users to report misleading information.

X did not respond to the BBC’s request for comment.

Misleading posts which go viral on X can also travel over to the comment section of videos on other sites, too, showing how an idea shared on one site can spread through the social-media ecosystem.

“Wild Mother”, a social media influencer who regularly shares unproven theories across different sites, said that four years ago, her comments were filled with “people calling me names, denying it”.

“And now, I was surprised to see that nearly every comment is in agreement,” she said, referring to a recent post discussing conspiracy theories about geo-engineering and the recent hurricanes.

There is a real-world impact to this kind of disinformation, which can undermine trust in authorities – in this case – during a complex rescue and recovery operation following Hurricane Milton.

Although misinformation has always spread during natural disasters, there’s a crucial difference between now and previous storms. For one, the falsehoods being shared are spreading to more people – fewer than three dozen false or abusive posts were viewed 160 million times on X, according to the Institute of Strategic Dialogue think tank.

They have also taken on a sharper political edge because of the impending US presidential election.