How could Israel respond, and what might Iran do then?

Iran cannot defeat Israel militarily. Its air force is old and decrepit, its air defences are porous and it has had to contend with years of Western sanctions.

But it still has an enormous quantity of ballistic and other missiles as well as explosive-laden drones and numerous allied proxy militias around the Middle East. Its next volley of missiles could well target Israeli residential areas, rather than military bases. The attack by an Iran-backed militia on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in 2019 showed just how vulnerable its neighbours are to attack.

The IRGC Navy, which operates in the Gulf, has large flotillas of small, fast missile attack boats which could, potentially, overwhelm the defences of a US Navy 5th Fleet warship in a swarm attack. If it had orders to do so, it could attempt to sow mines in the Strait of Hormuz, interrupting the flow of up to 20% of the world’s daily oil exports, something that would have a major impact on the global economy.

And then there are all the US military bases, dotted up and down the Arabian side of the Gulf, from Kuwait to Oman. Iran has given warning that if it is attacked it won’t just hit back at Israel, it will target any country it perceives as supporting that attack.

These then, are just some of the scenarios that defence planners in Tel Aviv and Washington will now be considering.