India
While India still lead the way as it stands, back-to-back home losses to New Zealand have made it that much tougher for Rohit Sharma’s men to reach a third straight WTC final.
It is still in their hands, though, and victory in the third Test against the Black Caps combined with winning three Tests in Australia would guarantee them a place in the showpiece game next summer.
Australia
Following India’s slip ups against New Zealand, the equation is pretty simple for Australia: win five of their last seven matches and they’ll go to Lord’s for a chance to defend their title.
Four wins – should three of them come against India – should be enough but anything less than five and other results become a factor.
Sri Lanka
As with Australia, it’s a fairly straightforward scenario for Sri Lanka. Win all four of their remaining matches in the cycle and they will be in the final.
That won’t be easy against fellow contenders South Africa and Australia but three wins and a defeat might still be enough depending on results elsewhere.
New Zealand
An historic series win in India has kept New Zealand, Test champions in 2021, in with a chance of returning to the final.
Even victory in all four of their remaining Tests – one in India and three at home to England – would not assure them of a top-two place but it would give them a very good chance.
South Africa
As it stands, the Proteas require five wins from five to be completely sure of a berth in the final.
Four wins and a draw would give them a strong chance, while even four wins and a loss would not completely end their chances.
However, in both instances, they would need other results to go their way.
England, Pakistan, Bangladesh and West Indies are no longer in contention to reach the final.
But, of course, it is worth noting that it could all change again if any side is deducted points for a slow over-rate, as five teams have in this cycle, including both England and Australia during the 2023 Ashes.
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