World Cup 2026: Does three points guarantee spot in World Cup round of 32?

Of the 12 teams that will finish in third place, eight will progress. That equates to exactly two-thirds.

To offer an accurate as possible comparison, in the 32-team era, this would have roughly equated to the five best third-placed teams.

In the seven previous tournaments, going back to 1998, each time the fifth-best third-placed team finished with at least three points: Colombia (1998), Portugal (2002), Poland (2006), Ivory Coast (2010 and 2014), Nigeria (2018), Tunisia (2022).

Therefore, goal difference could play a major factor in determining matters this year.

In 1998, three points and a -2 goal difference was enough for Colombia to be one of the five best third-placed teams. In 2006, Poland finished the tournament as the fifth-best third-place side with three points and a -2 goal difference.

Ivory Coast finished as the fifth-best third-place finishers in 2010 with three points and a +1 goal difference. Whereas in 2002, Portugal finished with a +2 goal difference on three points as the fifth-best third-placed team.

In 2022, there was a three-way tie for the fifth-best third-placed team: Tunisia, Cameroon and Uruguay all finished on four points and a level goal difference, with one win, one draw and one defeat each from their three group stage matches.

With 12 groups instead of eight at this tournament, there is room for a broader range of results but if recent history suggests anything, it is that teams should not rely on three points being enough to progress – and that goal difference will be key.

In 1998, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, there were 13 third-placed teams who finished on three points but were not among the top five third-place finishers.

This article is the latest from BBC Sport’s Ask Me Anything team.