Will ‘non-stop’ US election ads help Trump or Harris?

If election success were determined by dollars alone, Harris could be declared the winner now.

Her campaign – and that of Joe Biden before he quit the race – has been significantly out-fundraising and out-spending her Republican rival’s.

At the start of September, it had $235m in the bank, almost twice as much as Trump’s $135m.

Her campaign spent roughly $135m on media product and ad buys the month prior, which amounted to nearly 80% of $174m in total expenditures in August, the most recent official figures available, according to federal filings.

That was more than double the roughly $57m the Trump campaign spent on advertising and mailers the same month, and his overall $61m in spending was also far lower.

But elections are about more than a bottom line.

In the 2016 and 2020 election, Trump was also outspent but he dominated the headlines, giving him free coverage that helped to narrow the gap, Prof Fowler said.

This year, since Harris became the nominee, she has appeared to close Trump’s lead with free press, while the Democrats’ spending advantage has continued to widen, according to Prof Fowler. Over some weeks in September, Harris had been outspending Trump on Facebook and Instagram by a factor of 16:1.

“I have never seen margins like that before,” Prof Fowler said.

When you factor in spending by outside groups, the gap between Trump and Harris narrows.

But Geoff Pereira, head of content and insights at Media Radar CMAC, which tracks advertising on traditional television and radio, said Trump may be gambling, based on past experience and tight polls, that commercials won’t be the deciding factor.

After all, pro-Trump groups backed by some of his wealthiest supporters, such as Elon Musk’s America PAC, have claimed they plan to steer their spending to other areas, such as turnout.

“He was outspent in 2016 and 2020 and he’s being outspent to a greater extent this cycle, at least so far,” Mr Pereira said. “Will it matter?”

“Reading between the lines, he thinks he doesn’t necessarily need it.”