What are the chances of a white Christmas this year?

It’s still too early to know for sure. The festive forecast will become much clearer about five days before Christmas, so keep an eye on the BBC Weather app or website for the latest updates.

You can also read our thoughts further ahead in our monthly outlook.

Forecasting snow in the UK is notoriously difficult because, as an island nation, it is most frequently influenced by mild Atlantic weather patterns.

However, longer-range weather forecasting models are beginning to show possible trends for the Christmas period, influenced by wider teleconnections – large-scale interactions in which weather patterns in distant regions create atmospheric waves and flows that affect conditions thousands of miles away.

One such potential influence to our winter weather is a ‘warm blob‘ in the Pacific Ocean which could favour higher pressure and colder conditions developing in Europe.

Meteorologists are also keeping an eye on the development of a potential La Niña event over the coming months – the colder phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

Whilst the link between La Niña and UK weather isn’t clear cut, the Met Office suggests that historically it promotes high pressure to develop in the Atlantic in early winter. This could mean a higher than average chance of colder weather to start December.

Overall most computer models are hinting at a trend towards slightly calmer and colder conditions developing towards 25 December, so perhaps there’s a chance of seeing something white on the big day!