Trump needs this war to end but Iran is not backing down

The United States and Iran have both signalled that they would prefer not to go back to the war that has been on hold since the ceasefire was announced on 8 April.

Neither side has allowed the steady drumbeat of military exchanges between them to end the talks being mediated by Pakistan, Qatar and others.

The US still has powerful naval and air forces within striking distance of Iran.

It is safe to assume that the Iranian regime will have kept its forces on high alert and will be using the ceasefire to re-organise and repair damage done by the US and Israel.

Armed tension in the area in and around the Gulf opens up a clear risk for both sides of miscalculation and misperception.

The US is trying to keep the pressure on the Tehran regime to make concessions by demonstrating that they are close by and capable of causing great damage.

The Iranians are reminding the US that their determination to resist is undiminished and, if necessary, they will attack American bases and the wider infrastructure of the Arab gulf.

The first objectives on what would be a long and perhaps unreachable road to a wider deal between the US and Iran is a continuation of the ceasefire and an agreement on a “memorandum of understanding” on the agenda of more talks between them.

Getting to that is proving difficult.

Israel’s declaration that its bombers would return to Beirut has narrowed down Donald Trump’s options even more.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not worry if his renewed offensive in Lebanon makes an American deal with Iran harder to get. He didn’t want the ceasefire with the Tehran regime in the first place. As far as he’s concerned, any deal between America and Iran is a bad deal.

The Iranians continue to support Hezbollah, their ally and proxy in Lebanon.

They have indicated that a wider deal with the US will have to include an end to the Israeli offensive. President Trump seems, for now, to be trying to restrain Israel.

As for the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian regime will require a price, perhaps in the form of sanctions relief or unfrozen assets to reopen the Strait, which looks to be a prerequisite for serious negotiations.

Only a trickle of ships is getting through what had been a vital and busy waterway. Iran closed it after it was attacked by the US and Israel on 28 February.