Summer 2026 expected to be declared UK’s hottest on record

There is something striking about the way the UK’s summer temperature record is being broken.

In a climate that isn’t changing, new records should generally become progressively rarer, because every time a record falls, it raises the bar for the next one.

Instead, all five of the UK’s hottest summers on record have occurred since 2000, external. And until last year, the margins between them were tiny: the four hottest were separated by just five hundredths of a degree.

Then came 2025. The record jumped by 0.34C. Now, just a year later, it looks like that record has gone too.

“Record-shattering” sounds like the kind of language we journalists would use. In fact, it is a term climate scientists use for records broken by unusually large margins. Research suggests, external these big jumps become more likely if the climate is warming rapidly.

So why is this happening so quickly here? The UK sits on the western edge of Europe, the fastest-warming continent on Earth – warming at roughly twice the global rate.

There are a few reasons for that. Land heats up faster than the oceans, parts of Europe stretch into the rapidly warming Arctic, and changes in weather patterns have favoured more frequent and intense summer heatwaves.

Scientists are still working out exactly how much each factor contributes, but the result is clear: the background climate in which British weather happens is getting warmer.

None of this means the UK will break its summer record every year. Weather will always give us cooler summers as well as hotter ones. But the pattern is becoming unmistakable: records that once marked the extreme edge of the UK’s climate are being overtaken with remarkable speed.

So the question is not whether the UK will experience summers hotter than this one. It is how often they will come – and how much hotter they might be.