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Could El Niño mean there are no Atlantic hurricanes this year?

While El Niño is the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe.

As wind patterns shift during an El Niño, upper winds over the Atlantic increase and this leads to more wind shear, where wind changes rapidly with height.

Increased wind shear rips apart thunderstorms, preventing them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the Pacific typically becomes more active during El Niño because the sea surface temperatures here are much higher, combined with more favourable wind patterns.

The warmer waters give storms more energy to grow into tropical storms and hurricanes.

This year, temperature records have already been broken in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific, with daily sea surface temperatures now exceeding the previous record set during the very strong El Niño of 2015.

There have so far been 17 named storms in the basin including nine hurricanes, seven of which were major.

In terms of the amount of energy these storms have produced – known as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy – this season is around two and half times more active than normal at this point.

El Niño is predicted to continue to strengthen with forecasts suggesting it will reach its peak in November or December.


BBC News

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