Sheikh Hasina: Bangladesh’s protesters want their PM to go. Can she hold on?

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But how long can she hold on?

Ms Hasina already had to rely on the military when protesters ransacked police stations and set fire to government buildings last month.

The army was deployed after police and paramilitary forces failed to contain the unrest. But Friday saw fresh protests, which did not abate over the weekend.

If Ms Hasina wants to survive, she needs the support of the military, which still commands respect among people.

Some ex-military personell have expressed support for the protests and the army has been cautious in its response. The military chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, met junior officers on Friday amid concerns over how the army might repsond to the protests.

“[The] Bangladesh army will perform its promised duty in line with Bangladesh’s constitution and existing laws of the country,” the spokesperson for the armed forces said on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s neighbour and biggest ally, India, is likely to continue backing Ms Hasina. For one, she has clamped down on anti-India militant groups based in Bangladesh.

Two, Delhi has always viewed its foothold in Bangladesh as key to the security of the seven landlocked states in India’s north-east, all of which share a border with Bangladesh – and Ms Hasina has given transit rights to India to make sure goods from its mainland make it to those states.

There’s also strong sentiment against India within Bangladesh, partly because of Delhi’s support for Ms Hasina.

“If India decides [to] let things happen in Bangladesh and [that] they will not interfere, then Ms Hasina will not be able to sustain [her role],” says Mohiuddin Ahmed, a Bangladeshi political historian. “I think her days are numbered.”

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But it’s not immeditaely clear if and how the protests will change Delhi’s calculations.

Ms Hasina has already been facing huge critcism at home and abroad – the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies say the last three elections have not been free and fair, which Ms Hasina’s Awami League has denied.

The opposition even boycotted the 2024 polls, saying they would only take part if voting was overseen by an interim, neutral administration.

What Ms Hasina faces this time though is not just a challenge from her political opponents. The student-led protest movement has drawn people from all walks of life, including the opposition and Islamist parties.

More people are joining the protests knowing that nearly 300 have been killed in recent weeks – many of them shot by the police.

If protesters are indeed undeterred by the prospect of violence, that doesn’t augur well for any government, least of all an embattled one.


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