Russian gains accelerate as Ukraine’s Kursk gamble falters

Kupiansk and areas to the east of the Oskil river were liberated in the Kharkiv offensive of 2022, but Russia has progressively retaken the latter area. In a recent intelligence update, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said that Russian forces were trying to breach the north-eastern outskirts of the city.

Footage posted on 13 November, and verified by the BBC is consistent with this analysis. The video shows a convoy of Russian armour being repelled after making it to within 4km of the key bridge at Kupiansk, the last major road crossing in the area.

While these reports do not necessarily translate to control of an area, it is indicative of how stretched Ukraine’s defensive line has become.

Elsewhere, since retaking the city of Vuhledar in October – an elevated position which sits above key supply lines and which Moscow spent two years fighting for – Russia has thrown resources at Kurakhove.

Ukraine’s forces defending the city have so far repelled attacks to the south and east. But the front line creeps ever closer, with Russia also threatening to encircle defenders from the north and west.

Col Yevgeny Sasyko, a former head of strategic communications with Ukraine’s general staff, said Russia places “powerful jaws” around the flanks of a city that slowly “grind though” defences until they collapse.

Footage from the city verified by the BBC showed massive destruction, with residential buildings heavily damaged.

The ISW concludes Moscow now holds a total of 110,649 sq km in Ukraine. For comparison, Ukrainian forces seized just over 1,171 sq km in the first month of its incursion into Kursk – though Russian forces have now retaken nearly half of that territory.

Despite its territorial gains, Russia’s advance has come at a huge cost.

An analysis carried out by BBC Russian confirmed that at least 78,329 troops have been killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, with Moscow’s losses from September to November this year more than one-and-a-half times greater than the same period in 2023.

The losses are compounded by the “meat grinder” approach said to be favoured by Russian commanders – describing the waves of recruits thrown towards Ukrainian positions in a bid to exhaust troops.

Despite the Russian advances, some experts have noted that the actual speed of the offensive is still slow. David Handelman, a military analyst, suggested Ukrainian troops in the east were slowly withdrawing to preserve manpower and resources, rather than suffering from a broader collapse.