Private schools say early signs of pupils leaving

But Luke Sibieta, from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), expected the number of private school pupils to fall even without the VAT rise, because of a decline in the birth rate making its way through the school system.

It is also possible “parents are reconsidering whether private school really represents value for money”, as fees have increased more than inflation over the past decade, including a 9% rise last year, he says.

The IFS says the impact of the VAT changes is “likely to be small and concentrated” with about 20,000-40,000 extra pupils (3-7%) moving from the private to the state sector over the next few years because of the policy.

Richard Clark moved his son, Harry, from a state to a private school to try to better support his academic talents.

Harry, 10, took his GCSE maths in August and achieved a grade eight.

But the looming changes mean the family can no longer afford the £8,000-a-year fees and are struggling to find a state school place that can support Harry’s abilities.