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Northern Ireland general election aftermath

The “earthquake” may have passed but the aftershocks are still being felt right across Northern Ireland’s political landscape.

It was the most dramatic of outcomes to a most undramatic election campaign.

Now the parties have started to look beneath the surface to understand why the plates moved and to assess if the new fault lines are permanent.

But they will be mindful about over-analysing the results when so many other factors came into play.

Firstly, the turnout of 57% was the lowest in the history of Westminster elections.

A July snap election – peak holiday period – was always going to drive the numbers down.

Only three constituencies had a turnout in the 60s while others struggled to get above 50%.

Boundary changes also played a key role in shaping the final result as voters headed for new polling stations and a new list of candidates.

While the Richter scale did jump on Thursday in some constituencies, the Westminster needle shows little over all change.

The nationalist vote increased from 40.1% to 40.4% while the unionist vote has dipped from 43.2% to 43.1%.

There is also no change on the green benches – with nine nationalist MPs, eight unionist MPs and one Alliance MP.

But there is the potential for greater change.


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