John Curtice: What are the Scottish opinion polls saying?

One of these, from Survation, brought better news for the SNP. It suggested that, with 37% of the vote, the SNP were still seven points ahead of Labour and might win as many as 34 seats, twice as many as Labour on 17.

The Liberal Democrats were expected to win four, and the Conservatives just two.

However, the other four mega-polls have painted a similar picture to that of the Scotland-only polls.

On average, they also put Labour on 36%, four points ahead of the SNP on 32%. This, they suggest, could mean Labour winning 34 seats, the SNP only 15, though the precise numbers vary quite a lot from poll to poll.

The Conservatives, again with just 14%, together with the Liberal Democrats (on 7%) are thought likely to win four seats each.

The SNP are behind in most of the polls even though support for independence still stands at almost 50%.

Trouble is, only 64% of those who say they would vote Yes to independence are currently minded to vote SNP. As many as one in five (20%) is backing Labour.

The SNP’s hopes of closing the gap on Labour in the next ten days rest primarily on persuading those Labour-inclined Yes supporters to return to the nationalist fold. Labour, meanwhile, will be doing their best to retain them.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, Senior Research Fellow, Scottish Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’. He is also co-host of the ‘Trendy’ podcast.