Gaza: Long campaign by Israel may follow war

Whatever happens on Israel’s northern border, the conflict in Gaza, even if at a far lower level of intensity, shows no sign of coming to an end. Moves towards a ceasefire have lost momentum again, with neither Israel nor Hamas appearing ready to fully embrace all elements of the proposal laid out by President Biden.

There’s been much talk of what happens on the Day After. The Israeli war cabinet was dissolved by Mr Netanyahu after one of its members, Benny Gantz, left it, citing the prime minister’s failure to lay out a post-war plan as the main reason for his resignation.

It’s still unclear if there is such a plan. In a recent interview with a friendly Israeli media outlet, Mr Netanyahu said that it was clear that “military control in the foreseeable future will be ours”.

He went on to give what were perhaps his most detailed comments so far on how he envisions the post-war situation in Gaza: “We also want to create a civilian administration, if possible with local Palestinians, and maybe with external backing from countries in the region, to manage humanitarian supply and later on civilian affairs in the [Gaza] Strip.”

This chimes with what the Biden administration is hoping to achieve. Latest reports suggest that Egypt and the UAE are prepared to take part in a security force that might operate in Gaza after the war.

But the very concept of a Day After in Gaza may itself be somewhat optimistic. Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters continue to be able to reappear in areas from where they were driven out earlier in Israel’s campaign, in what has essentially become a form of guerrilla warfare.

The Israeli military’s chief spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has recently described the aim of destroying Hamas – making it disappear – as “simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public”.

He said that Hamas was an idea rooted in the hearts of the people and that “anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong”.