Fragile quiet and unanswered questions in Lebanon after US-Iran truce

The US-Iran agreement has not yet been made public, and it is unclear how it will apply to Lebanon. Both Iran and Pakistan, which acted as a mediator, said it included a ceasefire in the country – an Iranian demand that had become a key obstacle in the negotiations.

This round of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah started in March when Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel in retaliation for the killing of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the start of the US-Israel war against Iran. Israel responded with a devastating bombing campaign across Lebanon and another invasion of the country’s south.

For Iran, including Lebanon in the truce was crucial in strengthening its image among Hezbollah supporters, who have been deeply affected by the conflict, and in reinforcing Tehran’s influence domestically. Iran has financed, trained and armed Hezbollah since its creation in the 1980s.

Despite being weakened in the recent wars with Israel, the group, which is also a political party and a social movement running services including schools and hospitals, remains a significant force among Lebanon’s Shia Muslim community.

Last month, I visited communities in the south of the country, Hezbollah’s heartland, and saw that support for it endured amid Israel’s constant attacks.

Israel had argued that the conflict against Hezbollah was separate from the one in Iran and that it should continue. But under pressure from the US, it may be left with no option other than to wind down, if not stop, its military campaign.

This war has been catastrophic for Lebanon. More than 3,800 people have been killed, including many women and children, according to the country’s health ministry, whose figures do not distinguish combatants from civilians.

The Israeli military says it has killed more than 2,500 Hezbollah operatives; and Israeli authorities say 30 Israeli soldiers and four civilians have been killed during the war on both sides of the border.

One million people remain displaced across Lebanon, most of them Shia Muslims. Even with a ceasefire, many will not be able to return home.