Five things to look out for as Mark Drakeford unveils Wales’ budget

Because it has fewer than half the seats in the Senedd, Labour can’t make this budget a reality unless it can convince at least one member from another party to back it in a crucial vote next year.

We can expect a lot of negotiation and bargaining behind the scenes, if it hasn’t started already.

Morgan has tried to up the ante, with a blood-curdling warning about the money Wales loses if her budget fails to pass.

Losing votes could also lop 10p off every £1 of income tax, depriving the Welsh government of crucial funds.

That might appeal to some, but it would represent a political and financial crisis for the Senedd – and it’s difficult to see a government surviving that.

Drakeford says the draft of his budget will offer a “bright future for Wales”.

The Welsh Conservatives said social care needed more funding, as did the NHS “which is at crisis point”.

Tory shadow finance minister Peter Fox also called for a “root and branch review so that taxpayers’ money is well-spent and efficiently allocated”.

The support of the Welsh Liberal Democrats’ sole MS, Jane Dodds, would be enough to pass the budget.

Her spokesperson said she wanted more funding for social care, child poverty and rural investment.

The last three budgets passed as part of a co-operation deal with Plaid Cymru, which has now ended.

Plaid finance spokesperson Heledd Fychan said the first minister should “fight for a fair deal” from Keir Starmer’s UK government.

“If she fails, then Labour’s budget will mean more cuts and NHS funding that delivers ever-diminishing returns,” she said.