Economic study predicts modest growth for NI

“Northern Ireland is in the unique position of being part of the EU single market while remaining within the UK fiscal, welfare, and monetary unions,” Stephen Millard, from the NIESR, said.

The model estimates that the NI economy will perform relatively well in 2025 with growth of 1.7%.

That is based on a projection of average wages rising faster than inflation, helping to boost consumer spending.

Growth is then expected to slow over the rest of the decade, giving an average growth rate of 1.2% between 2023 and 2029.

The model has also been used to estimate the impact of various hypothetical scenarios for the Northern Ireland economy, such as devolving and increasing income tax.

It suggests that using increased tax revenues to invest in infrastructure would lead to a sustained improvement in economic output and a marginal fall in employment.

The project has been funded by Ibec, Ireland’s major employer’s organisation.

Its chief executive Danny McCoy said the model would “serve as an invaluable resource for policymakers in Dublin, Belfast, and London, as well as for public and private sector enterprises operating on both sides of the border”.