Democrats bet big on Texas in hope of flipping Ted Cruz’s Senate seat

At the Cactus Jack Cagle Community Center in Spring, Texas, on Thursday afternoon, a steady stream of Texans turned out to vote early in the 5 November election. Many said they were supporting Trump and Cruz, primarily because of the economy and their views on limiting undocumented migration. Those backing Harris in this northern Houston suburb were cautiously optimistic, however.

“Cruz is wishy-washy,” said Leona Fuller. “He called Trump all kinds of names [in the 2016 presidential race], and now all of a sudden, he’s pro-Trump. You can’t do that and expect to lead people and be effective in your leadership.”

Floyd Guidry III, voting in his first election since turning 18, said he wrote a high school report on Allred’s policy proposals and was particularly drawn to his calls for criminal justice reform.

“It’s time for change,” Floyd’s father, who came with him to vote, said. “It doesn’t matter if you’re a Republican or a Democrat.”

Many political experts, however, have their doubts.

Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has the race rated at “likely Republican”.

“Texas is going to be a toss-up state one day,” he said, citing demographic shifts as the state becomes younger and more diverse. “But I don’t see it happening for Democrats this year.”

If the Democrats want to hold control of the Senate, however, the opportunities to do so are few and far between.

They currently hold 51 seats in the 100-person chamber. If they win the presidency (a big if) they can only afford to lose one seat. If Trump wins, any net loss for the party will deliver the chamber to Republicans, with Vice-President JD Vance providing a tie-breaking vote.

The map for Democrats this year is bleak.

Thirty-four of the chamber’s 100 senators, who serve six-year terms, are up for election this year. Democrats are defending 23 seats – in part the result of the party’s overperformance in 2018 and 2012.

In three of those states – Ohio, Montana and West Virginia – Trump comfortably won in 2016 and 2020.

The West Virginia seat being vacated by centrist former Democrat Joe Manchin is a virtual lock to flip to the Republicans. In Montana, three-term incumbent Jon Tester has been trailing in the polls for months.

Five other Democratic-controlled seats are in states that are considered toss-ups in this year’s presidential race – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. In three of those states, Democratic incumbents are seeking re-election. In the other two, a new candidate is trying to replace an outgoing senator.

Meanwhile, most of the Republican-held seats on the ballot are in deeply conservative states like Mississippi, North Dakota and Wyoming. Only in Florida and Cruz’s Texas are Democrats anywhere near striking distance.