Crucial moment in the Conservative leadership race

Supporters of Badenoch acknowledge they would have liked to have seen her do better in the latest round.

But they think there is a clump of Tugendhat supporters who really didn’t like Jenrick’s claim last week that British special forces are “killing rather than capturing terrorists” because of the European Convention on Human Rights.

They particularly disliked his use in a campaign video, external of footage of a comrade of Tugendhat’s from his military days, who later died.

“Rob is in trouble,” one MP predicts – or hopes.

So things are: Uncertain, mighty competitive and close.

Tory MPs have to decide who they really do not want to be their leader and weigh up how party members might vote depending on the different potential pairings.

The website ConservativeHome reckons, external that as things stand, James Cleverly could beat Robert Jenrick among the members, but Kemi Badenoch could beat James Cleverly.

“Accordingly, if MPs want to stop Cleverly from winning, backing Badenoch seems their best.

“And if they want to stop Badenoch, a vote for Jenrick beckons,” as the ConservativeHome puts it.

It is enough to make your head spin.

Little wonder rumours are rife that all sorts of jiggery pokery has been going on – and could still be going on.

Team Badenoch are playing hardball with an argument about her seeming popularity with party members.

But they do so knowing some MPs really do not want her as leader.

“What will members say if they have to vote for two people they didn’t want?” says one.

“It’ll be like Liz and Rishi all over again, when the members wanted Penny vs Kemi,” they add, in reference to Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt in the contest in 2022 and the prospect of a Cleverly-Jenrick run off.

It leaves me pondering how the party would react if Badenoch is rejected by MPs.

It might not be pretty.

So, the stakes are high – as the Conservative Party approaches its biggest single moment yet since its calamitous election defeat in July.