Could Rhun ap Iorwerth be the first non-Labour FM?

The next time Plaid Cymru gathers for its autumn conference Rhun ap Iorwerth could be Wales’s first non-Labour First Minister. If things go according to his plan.

His pitch to take his party from third biggest to largest in the Senedd is aimed at voters disillusioned with Labour and those worried about the rise of Reform.

Today’s pledge on an improved childcare offer is part of that progressive pitch.

On independence, Plaid is more pragmatic under ap Iorwerth than it has been in the past.

He says this is not an independence election: a marked change from the party’s previous Senedd election pledge in 2021 of an independence referendum within five years.

There has been an acknowledgement since ap Iorwerth took over in 2023 that many people in Wales need convincing, partly because of the economics and warnings of a potential short to medium-term shortfall in tax receipts if Wales were an independent nation.

But for all the talk today of replacing Labour, Plaid Cymru might need them after all.

No party is likely to win a majority next May, and whoever ends up the biggest party could need help from someone else to pass legislation – including a budget.

But if Plaid can rack up a significant number of MSs, albeit still in a minority, then there has perhaps been a hint that they would be prepared to go it alone.

Ap Iorwerth said earlier that other parties would “look at ways of influencing Plaid” if they were the biggest party.

That is not quite the same as saying that Plaid themselves would be open to offers.

The prospect of change, the potential of Plaid leading it and the polls which suggest a promising result for Plaid means there will be more scrutiny than before on what they’re offering to voters.

It will add to the pressure on them to deliver and become the biggest party.

Opponents will point out that Plaid is not a total change for Wales.

The party has been a junior party in government before and has signed up to formal deals with Labour in the past.

Well, it is often too easy to misread a mood as attendees are the converted after all – although it was loud at Reform, punchy at Labour and more circumspect at the Conservatives this autumn.

In Swansea, it is perhaps more the image that is being portrayed that stands out.

The Brangwyn Hall is very grand.

Its maze of corridors lend to a feeling of busyness.

For Plaid – and for all the other parties – the business end of politics is now fast approaching next May.