Could Kinshasa strike a minerals deal with the US?

The Democratic Republic of Congo appears to be turning to the US in its latest efforts to find an ally in its fight against advancing M23 rebels.

Recognising that the White House of President Donald Trump is interested in transactional relationships – and seeing the proposed Ukraine-US mineral deal – the resource-rich DR Congo is hoping to strike its own agreement with Washington.

It has also been reported that Trump is soon to appoint the father-in-law of his daughter, Tiffany, to a key role in the region.

Congolese government spokesperson Patrick Muyaya confirmed to the BBC’s Newsday programme that his country wanted to bring the US on board and supply it “with some critical minerals”.

“Of course… we can also talk about security,” he added.

DR Congo is in trouble militarily.

M23 fighters – backed by neighbouring Rwanda – have made major advances in parts of the mineral-rich east of the country.

Regional forces – first from east and then southern Africa – which were supposed to provide some help have failed to hold back the rebels. The M23 has talked about advancing west in a bid to seize the capital, Kinshasa.

Given the dangers, it is not surprising that President Félix Tshisekedi might be looking at ways to shore up his position.

On 22 February, Tshisekedi was reported by the New York Times to have said that the Trump administration had shown interest in a deal involving strategic minerals.

The day before, the Africa-USA Business Council – a lobby group – wrote to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on behalf of a Congolese senator describing a possible deal that included an “economic and military partnership”.

DR Congo is estimated to have $24tn-worth (£19tn) of untapped resources – including cobalt, gold and copper.

The country is currently the world’s largest supplier of cobalt – which has defence and aerospace applications as well as being essential for batteries in electric vehicles – but most of this goes to China. It also has significant lithium, tantalum and uranium deposits, which also have military uses.

Though the US is investing in a huge infrastructure project – the Lobito corridor – designed to transport goods out of central Africa to a port in Angola, its companies are not involved in mining in DR Congo.

As China dominates the Congolese mineral sector there could be “a widening strategic gap, where adversarial nations continue to monopolise Africa’s resources”, the letter to Rubio said.

In theory, DR Congo could offer favourable terms to US companies to exploit the resources.

But, according to mining analyst Gregory Mthembu-Salter, as the US, unlike China, relies on private commercial companies to do the work they may decide that it is too risky to do business there.

But this is all highly speculative and a US Department of State spokesperson said that there was “nothing to preview or announce at this time”.

Nevertheless the US “is open to discussing partnerships in this sector” that align with the executive order aimed at making the US a “leading producer and processor of non-fuel minerals, including rare earth minerals”.

One key area could be in “strengthening military co-operation”, as the letter to Rubio puts it.

This would involve:

• Training and equipping soldiers “to protect mineral supply routes”
• Giving the US access to military bases “to protect strategic resources”
• And “replacing ineffective UN peacekeeping operations with direct US-DRC security co-operation”.

The Congolese spokesperson declined to confirm these details, but there is some scepticism about how realistic and immediately effective they could be.

According to Stephanie Wolters, regional analyst for the South African Institute of International Affairs, if Kinshasa wants a US military presence in the east then “that is not very likely to happen”.

Furthermore “weapons and training are longer term issues”, she told BBC Focus on Africa.

“I think the outreach the Congolese government has made is surely because of the active military situation in the east and I’m not convinced that what the US might offer in return is really something that can address the acute need at the moment.”

Congolese mining industry analyst Jean-Pierre Okenda said some oversight of the deal would be wise, suggesting parliament and civil society should also be consulted if it was going to serve the interests of the people.

Looking at the bigger picture he said that moves towards a more peaceful future need to address the “kleptocratic management of the state”.

A previous deal with China that gave mining access in exchange for infrastructure projects was criticised for not delivering on some of what was promised.

Tshisekedi has since renegotiated this, but the lack of transparency in those talks has been criticised.

Nothing concrete is likely to happen soon.

While Muyaya, speaking for Kinshasa, was vague on what we could expect he told the BBC that “in the coming days we can have more details to share”.

He added that there was “the political will [from Tshisekedi] and I think the US has attention on those questions”.

On the US side, according to the news website Semafor, President Trump is due to announce that Massad Boulos will be the White House’s new Great Lakes regional envoy.

He is the father of Michael Boulos, who is married to Trump’s daughter Tiffany, and has been serving as Trump’s senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs since December.

Among his business interests is a Nigeria-based company that specialises in the distribution of motor vehicles and equipment across West Africa – and he is expected to fly to Kinshasa at some point in the next few weeks.