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Championship play-offs: Can stats pick out winner between Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Hull City?

In the 21 play-off campaigns since the Championship era began in 2004-05, the club finishing in third during the regular season has won promotion the most often.

Recent history shows that teams finishing in fourth place are well set up for promotion, too.

The past six Championship play-off winners have all finished in either third or fourth, of which four successful sides have finished in fourth spot.

With nine of the 21 play-off campaigns in the Championship being won by the side finishing third, Millwall are historically the best bet, but fourth-placed Southampton might be a better shout given the recent trend.

As for fifth and sixth place, the most recent fifth-placed club to win promotion were Aston Villa in 2018-19.

You have to go back almost a full further decade to find a sixth-placed club triumphing.

That honour belonged to Blackpool, who earned promotion through the play-offs from that spot in 2009-10.

The table below shows how the Championship play-offs, since 2004-05, has favoured the sides with loftier finishing places in the regular 46-game season.


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