Bristol schools being affected by ‘yo-yo’ birth rates

A Bristol primary school has announced possible merger plans due to a falling birth rate in the city.

Dolphin School in Montpelier, which opened in 2012, could close and its students go to nearby Fairlawn Primary which is run by the same academy trust – E-ACT.

It’s not the first primary schools to close or merge due to the birth rate, which is 30% down from 2012 to 2023 according to Bristol City Council.

In the earlier 2000s the city face the the opposite issue, with more younger children needing reception places, nicknamed “the bulge”.

With the reverse now true, primary places aren’t needed as much, but there’s still a scramble to get the secondary and sixth form places of your choice.

This creates a challenge for Bristol City Council, which needs to work out how to predict the demand for places.

Christine Townsend, chair of the authority’s Children and Young People Committee said it’s literally a matter of studying the number of births.

“We know our birth rates in the city, but obviously children move in and they move out. However, when you use your birth rates, you can see (the numbers) coming out of the maternity hospitals,” said the Green Party councillor.

“Of course we’re not always going to be spot on, but largely it is possible to plan strategically for school places.”

She said she would prefer schools not to close permanently, as is the likely outcome with Dolphin, especially as it only opened 13 years ago when primary numbers were booming.

In 2021 St Pius X, another primary, closed down – as did St Barnabas two years later.

Huw Illingworth has two children at Fairlawn Primary in Montpelier which, if the plans go ahead, will see an influx of children from Dolphin School:

“I think that the sadness for me is we will lose two schools in this area, particularly losing St Barnabas, which was a long-established school.”

“I think something went wrong in the planning. This existing building (Fairlawn) should have been prioritised before Dolphin (School) was built.”

E-Act, the academy trust which runs both schools has projected that if Dolphin stays open, then by 2027 pupil numbers could be as low as 150, when they were above 250 in 2022/23.

Bristol currently faces high demand for secondary places, and a brand new school for the Oasis charitable trust is being built alongside the Feeder Canal at Temple Quarter.

But it’s taken time to get planning and is not ready to open yet.

In the meantime, children who would be eligible to go the school are being taught at a temporary site in Bedminster.

Oasis founder the Reverend Steve Chalke said fluctuating birth rates is a problem all councils have to grapple with.

“What’s happened is local authorities have sold off school buildings because they’ve not been needed and wonderful Victorian buildings have become luxury flats or used for other purposes or demolished,” he said.

“And then you get a boom again and then you just don't have the space.”

Ms Townsend said she believes buildings should be repurposed rather than razed to the ground:

“The main aim is to keep our schools open wherever possible, because we know that the birth rate will go back up and therefore those places will be needed again.”