Andrew RT Davies: The ‘tight’ vote facing the Welsh Tory leader

Might some MSs resign from his shadow cabinet in the event of a close win for Davies?

That is similar to the scenario that eventually brought down former First Minister Vaughan Gething earlier this year, when several cabinet members quit.

Might Davies himself stand down if he knows that his group is completely split?

Might he win, stay on, but face a monumental job of convincing his colleagues that he’s their best option?

It is very uncertain and very tense – with the future of the leadership and future direction of the party at stake, as well as the increasingly urgent need to address some dire polling ahead of the Senedd election in 2026.

A recent ITV Wales/Cardiff University poll, external, published at the weekend, suggested the Tories were polling in fourth place at 19%, behind Labour and Reform at 23%, and Plaid Cymru at 24%.

Not many Conservative MSs have publicly declared where they stand on the vote of confidence, with many opting not to comment.

Read into that what you will, if they are being asked if they back their leader.

Others say they would prefer not to get involved in any public debate, and some have come out in support of Andrew RT Davies.

The Vale of Clwyd MS Gareth Davies posted on X two days ago that “as current things stand Andrew RT Davies has still my support in being leader.”