Welsh government draft budget to be published

The Welsh government is to publish more detail about its upcoming budget on Monday.

After losing a seat in the Caerphilly by-election, Labour does not have enough members in the Senedd to pass it without making a deal with at least two opposition Members of the Senedd (MSs).

The Welsh government said its £27bn draft included £800m more funding than last year.

However some, particularly in local government, have warned this would not be enough to cover their costs.

Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford has already indicated this would be a “business as usual” budget which will see it rolled over, but increased by inflation.

If the Welsh government fails to strike a deal with another party, then the budget will pass at 75% of this year’s level which could have a catastrophic impact on public services with “big cuts” and major potential job losses.

Labour was one seat short of a majority before they lost the Caerphilly by-election, and depended on Liberal Democrat MS, Jane Dodds, to pass the budget for this financial year.

But with Plaid Cymru winning the Caerphilly by-election, Labour will now have to guarantee the support of at least two other MSs to make up the numbers.

This budget is significant because polls suggest Labour may not be in power after the next Senedd elections and the next government would inherit these spending plans.

The first draft suggested each department’s funds could increase by about 2%, but those figures are expected to change with £380m left unallocated in order to allow the government to make deals with other parties in exchange for their support.

Talks have been taking place between the government and the Welsh Conservatives about a deal.

Scrapping stamp duty, known as the Land Transaction Tax in Wales, is one of the Welsh Conservatives’ top priorities according to the party’s leader, Darren Millar.

However, Mark Drakeford has indicated that would not be possible as it would leave a “big hole in the budget”.