Why the jury is out on the NHS backlog plan

This is not to say that the backlog will not be reduced. It would be a surprise if it did not start to fall in the coming months – most forecasts have pinpointed this spring as the potential turning point.

But the ultimate goal of getting the NHS back to hitting the 18-week target by the end of this parliament still remains a big ask.

That would mean 92% of patients being seen within 18 weeks – something that has not been achieved since 2015. Currently fewer than 60% are.

The Blair government made big strides in the early 2000s, but that was underpinned by significant increases in the NHS budget – between 6-7% a year on top of inflation.

Increases on that scale seem very unlikely given the state of public finances – although we will have to wait until the spring for the spending review to find out what budget will be set aside for the NHS in the coming years.

Another concern, being voiced by some, is that with so much emphasis placed on waiting lists there is a risk other areas may end up neglected as health chiefs focus so much of their attention on this.

“The 18-week target should not be taken as the sole measure of how the NHS is faring,” says Sarah Woolnough, head of the King’s Fund think tank. “Equally important to people are how long they are waiting for a GP appointment or an ambulance, for mental health care and other services.”

In short, any progress that is made on the waiting list could easily get lost if the wheels come off elsewhere.