What Trump’s guilty verdict means for the 2024 election

Those were hypothetical convictions, however.

The former president faces three other criminal cases – involving his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House. All are indefinitely delayed, leaving this guilty verdict as the only certain result this year.

Doug Schoen, a pollster who worked with Democratic President Bill Clinton and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, says American voters may feel differently based on this specific case.

“While it’s not a great thing to be convicted of a crime, what voters will be thinking about in November is inflation, the southern border, competition with China and Russia and the money that is being spent on Israel and Ukraine.”

He adds that this conviction, because it dealt with events that took place eight years ago, will not pack the same political punch as the type of convictions voters may have been imagining when polled earlier this year.

Even a slight drop in Trump’s support, however, might be enough to matter in the kind of razor-thin race this presidential contest could become. If a few thousand voters who would have otherwise backed the former president stay home in a key state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, it could make all the difference.

“I do think it will have an impact and damage him as a candidate,” says Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress, a group that has sought to move the party away from Trump.

She says younger voters and those who are college-educated and live in the suburbs have been concerned about Trump’s demeanour and his approach to governing.

“Those voters are really hesitant to get back in line with the Republican Party headed by Donald Trump,” she says. “The guilty verdict is going to further shore up those concerns.”