What impact could the 2024 general election have on Scottish independence?

When it comes to independence, Labour’s largely unspoken argument appears to be that it would be impractical and unaffordable just now, involving destabilising change to the country’s currency, borders, public services and more.

At the same time, the SNP is stressing what it regards as the practical case for independence, as an escape route from a stagnating United Kingdom.

It says entrenched low growth, low productivity and high inequality have been compounded by cuts to public spending and the UK’s departure – against the wishes of a majority of Scottish voters – from the EU.

This is not the “existential nationalism” expressed in the fighting talk of the Declaration of Arbroath but the “utilitarian nationalism” of the late Neil MacCormick, one of the most influential thinkers in the SNP’s 90-year history.

In a 1970 essay Sir Neil, as he would later become, proposed independence as “the best means to the well-being of Scottish people”, adding that it “would have to be preceded by devolution”.

He would surely be delighted to see polls that not only indicate a relatively high and stable level of support for independence, but also point to even higher levels of support among younger voters.

In the past decade, says Prof Henderson, while older voters have become more opposed to independence, “the youngest members of the electorate have become markedly more supportive”.

Not only that, but the average age at which voters shift from supporting independence to opposing it has risen from around 40 to around 50, she adds.

Prof Henderson cautions that “demography is not destiny”, noting that a similar pattern in the Canadian province of Quebec was eventually reversed and, nearly 30 years after it narrowly rejected independence, Quebec remains part of Canada.

Nonetheless, the Scottish polling gives heart to supporters of the idea and causes some concern for its opponents.

If Labour does win this election, Scotland may be embarking on a new political phase, with voters weighing up their position on the constitution not first and foremost by scrutinising the SNP’s plans but by closely assessing whether or not they are prospering within the UK.

Half a century after the SNP outlined the principle of utilitarian nationalism, its opponents may be about to put utilitarian unionism to the test.