US President-elect Donald Trump: Openings and warnings for Africa

The biggest obstacle to peace is that the UAE supports one side with weapons and cash while Egypt and Saudi Arabia back the other. There is no prospect for peace while this continues.

For those Arab powerbrokers, Sudan is just one element in their geostrategic calculations, ranked below Israel-Palestine, Iran and relations with Washington.

But if there is a reshuffle of the Middle Eastern political cards, a bargain over Sudan might be a by-product, even an opportunity for Trump to bask in the glow of an unexpected peacemaker.

It will not bring an end to violence, let alone usher in democracy, but it would open the space for serious negotiations.

A similar calculation holds for Ethiopia and its fractious relations with an Egypt-led coalition that includes Eritrea and Somalia.

Along with an array of African leaders, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is heavily reliant on Emirati largesse. Tensions in the Horn of Africa would be reduced if Egypt and the UAE align their strategies.

The Biden administration’s policy towards the Horn of Africa was neither committed to principled multilateralism, nor ready to use its leverage with the Gulf states.

Its envoys could only grasp for minor wins such as pauses in the fighting or opening checkpoints for aid convoys.

The tangled wars in Sudan, Ethiopia and their neighbours cry out for bold action – and if he were so minded, Trump might cut the Gordian Knot.

But the risks of a conflagration are high.

The Trump White House will not be likely to restrain bellicose tendencies by Middle Eastern powerbrokers or African leaders, and – especially during the US policy vacuum of the next few months – any one of those leaders could launch a war, confident that America will not respond.

In his first term, Trump showed no interest in the US military footprint in Africa.

Apparently on a whim, he ordered the withdrawal of American troops from Somalia, where they were involved in the war against the jihadist group al-Shabab – a decision reversed by the Biden administration.

It’s unlikely that Trump will pay attention to the Pentagon’s operations against jihadists there or in the West African Sahel, unless there is a high-profile incident with American casualties.

And America’s Middle Eastern allies will be keen for the US to retain its military base in Djibouti.

Reports of collusion between Yemen’s Houthis and al-Shabab, heightening risks of attacks in East Africa or on shipping in the Indian Ocean, may rekindle US interest in military operations.

Alternatively, missions could be outsourced to allies such as the UAE or private military contractors.