United Ireland: New study challenges cost predictions

The IIEA study, written by economists John Fitzgerald and Edgar Morgenroth, focused on the subvention – the shortfall between what is raised in taxes in Northern Ireland and the amount spent on public services.

They estimated that the subvention in 2019 was just under €11bn (£9.4bn) meaning the Irish state would need to find that money to provide public services to the state’s new population in what had been Northern Ireland.

They suggested that if social security benefits and public sector wages in Northern Ireland were immediately raised to match levels in Ireland the subvention would jump to more than €20bn (£17bn), equivalent to 10% of national income.

Prof Doyle said it was unrealistic to assume salaries would immediately be equalised and even if they were the IIEA paper had taken no account of the additional taxes which would be collected from public sector workers.

He said: “The IIEA report assumed that public service salaries in Northern Ireland would be immediately increased to Southern levels in year one. This is unrealistic and unnecessary, as the cost of living in Northern Ireland would not change immediately.

“Convergence will happen over time and will involve negotiations with public sector trade unions. Merging salary levels over 15 years – half the time taken by Germany, would mean a cost of approximately €133m (£96.3m) in year one, rising on average by that amount each year.”