Ukraine war: Can using Western weapons on Russia change the war?

Just a few days before this announcement, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to expand “sanitary zones” in case Western long-range weapons are used to strike the Russian territory.

He said that Nato countries in Europe must remember that they have “states with small territories and dense population”.

“They must take this factor into consideration prior to discussing strikes deep inside the Russian territory,” he added.

Avoiding an escalation is probably the reason why the US didn’t include long-range weapons such as ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) in its permission to strike Russia. These missiles have a range of 300km and could be used to hit military bases and airfields well into Russian territory.

Such limitations leave Ukraine with only the option of focusing on targets near its border. But this is still a major policy shift by Kyiv’s main allies.

Even with a shorter range – up to 70km – multiple rocket launchers such as HIMARS can significantly disrupt Russian logistics operations and troops movement, which will ultimately slow down any offensive plans.

Now, Ukraine can “strike places where the enemy concentrated its troops, equipment and supply storage facilities that are used to attack Ukraine,” says Ivan Povkh from the Kharkiv tactical group that co-ordinates military operations in the north-east.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia was gathering its troops just 90km from Kharkiv for another offensive.

And the Institute for Study of War analysed satellite images and confirmed that there were “expanded activities at depots and warehouses” in that area. So the ability to target those facilities will seriously strengthen the capacity of Ukrainian forces to repel new attacks in the region.

Lifting the ban on Western weapons, however, is unlikely to help to protect Ukraine from Russian glide bombs known locally as KAB. They have a devastating effect and are regularly used to bomb Kharkiv and other border towns. But to stop such attacks, Ukrainian forces must target planes that drop those deadly KABs.