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UK election: Does Sinn Féin win bring Irish unity any closer?

The timing of any future referendum on Irish unity is still at the “discretion” of the secretary of state, according to Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool.

“If it’s on seats, palpably Sinn Féin have got a case for a border poll,” he told the BBC’s Nolan Show.

But he also pointed out that the unionist vote has been “ridiculously” divided in Parliament and nationalists do not have a majority when it comes to the share of the overall vote.

If you take the combined vote shares of Sinn Féin (27%), the SDLP (11%), Aontú (1%) and People before Profit (1%), the total amounts to about 40%.

But if you combine the votes of the DUP, UUP, TUV and the new Independent MP Alex Easton, unionists have a larger share of about 43%.

And, of course, there is still the mystery factor of those who do not yet take a position on the constitutional question.

As Prof Tonge said: “With Alliance on 15% yesterday, we don’t know, frankly, with great conviction what way their voters would go, so the debate will rumble on.”


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