Turkey’s 3m Syrian refugees face big decision on going home or staying

Metin Corabatir, head of the Asylum and Migration Research Centre, predicts that a “gradual return” will take place within a year at best, provided that the necessary preparations are made.

“There are still risks in Syria in terms of both security and daily life. An internationally recognised government must take office in Damascus,” he told the BBC.

Ibrahim agrees that for many refugees there will be nothing left to return home to: “In some areas there are no houses, no schools left. Even big cities like Aleppo are in a bad situation.”

“But this country has come out of a 13-year war and we cannot wait for everything to be ready for us. As the Syrian people, we will try to rebuild everything little by little.”

In other words, Ibrahim says the identity of Syria’s next government is less important than Syrians going home to influence their future.

“Whoever comes will be better than Assad,” he says. “If we don’t return, who will go to the elections, who will decide how the country will be governed?”

Metin Corabatir points out that the big influx into Turkey came initially as Syrians fled the Assad regime from 2011-2013. The later exodus came when Syrians fled the rise of militant Islamist group IS and the spread of political instability.

“It’s not easy to tell how the groups that come to power will behave, and Syrians will naturally expect to see that,” he says.

“What kind of regime will be created there? The team that came says ‘we are not jihadists, we will allow diversity’ – but only time will tell to understand whether this is real or not.”