The Tories have lost. Now which voters should they chase?

The parliamentary Conservative party is dazed and confused, even grief-stricken.

Many knew a big defeat was coming, though some were in denial. All agree that the reality of life in opposition is even worse than expected.

“It’s like Lehman Brothers around here,” one Conservative MP muttered, as he saw yet another ousted colleague wander past carrying a cardboard box holding their belongings.

“There are a load of MPs I thought I’d be spending decades with in this place,” said another. “They’re really good mates. And almost all of them are gone. It’s a reminder of how vulnerable we all are.”

And here’s one of the few remaining members of the Conservatives’ vast 2019 intake: “It’s not great to feel like a greybeard when you’ve only been here four-and-a-half years.”

It’s in that emotional state that the remaining MPs need to start answering questions about where to go next. But they are in no hurry to do so. Indeed it’s hard even to know what the right questions are.

Most glaring and immediate, of course, is the question of who should succeed Rishi Sunak. The fact that no-one has yet declared their candidacy – and there appears to be no particular clamour for them to do so – tells its own story.

As one shadow cabinet minister put it: “Look at 1997 and look at 2005 – 2005 was a lot longer and went a lot better.”

In 1997, the last time the Conservatives were ejected from government, John Major was replaced by William Hague within 49 days. In 2005, it took seven months for David Cameron to be chosen to replace Michael Howard. Lord Hague’s four years as leader were forlorn, Lord Cameron led the Conservatives back into government.

“The question I hear people asking each other the most,” one Conservative MP said, “is who is our David Cameron?”

In some quarters, the drift towards a longer leadership election betrays a lack of enthusiasm for the likely candidates.

One influential backbencher suggested that postponing the start of the contest would allow MPs to see how the putative candidates take to the task of opposition, for example responding in the King’s Speech debate or tabling urgent questions to cabinet ministers.

For others, though, a long campaign is an opportunity to have a more fundamental debate about how the Conservatives should rebuild.

“The problem is we lost votes everywhere at once,” one MP on the right of the party said. “Lots want us to just think about the challenge from Reform, and we must, but we can’t ignore our other former voters.”

Consider a couple of constituencies for a moment.