Syria: The unthinkable has happened – what next?

The end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule will reshape the balance of power in the region.

Iran, again, is seeing its influence suffer a significant blow. Syria under Assad was part of the connection between the Iranians and Hezbollah, and it was key for the transfer of weapons and ammunition to the group.

Hezbollah itself has been severely weakened after its war with Israel.

Iran has also seen the Houthis in Yemen being targeted in air strikes. All these factions, plus militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, form what Tehran describes as the Axis of Resistance, which has now been severely damaged.

This new picture will be celebrated in Israel where Iran is viewed as an existential threat.

Many believe this offensive could not have happened without the blessing of Turkey. For some time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had pressed Assad to engage in negotiations to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict that could allow the return of Syrian refugees.

At least three million of them are in Turkey, and this is a sensitive issue locally.

But Assad had refused to do so.

Turkey, which supports some of the rebels in Syria, has denied backing HTS.

A lot of people are happy to see Assad go.

But what happens next? HTS have their roots in al-Qaeda, and a violent past.

They have spent the last years trying to rebrand themselves as a nationalist force, and their recent messages have a diplomatic and conciliatory tone.

But many are not convinced, and are concerned about they might be planning to do after toppling the regime.