South Africa elections: ANC’s dilemma over coalition government

The ANC’s other option is to form a coalition with MK, which was the big winner of the election by securing third spot with 15% of the vote in the first election it contested.

But it is demanding a fresh poll, alleging that it got even more votes but the final result was rigged. The electoral commission has rejected the allegation, and MK has not yet presented any evidence for its claim.

The chasm between it and the ANC is wide, wider than with any other party, partly because of the personal animosity between Mr Zuma and Mr Ramaphosa, who ousted him as the country’s leader.

As well as demanding a new president, MK wants the constitution to be torn up so that South Africa becomes an “unfettered parliamentary democracy” – something the ANC has ruled out.

At first glance, this also rules out the EFF, as it too is demanding a constitutional amendment so that white-owned land can be expropriated without compensation.

Mr Malema, a former ANC youth leader who was expelled by the party in 2012 for fomenting divisions and bringing the party into disrepute, said the EFF was willing to work with the ANC in a coalition government. However, the party’s demand for land expropriation was a “cardinal principle”, and it would not join the government if the ANC rejects it.

The ANC and EFF together have 198 seats – just short of the 201 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, so a smaller party would have to be brought into a coalition.

Or they could team up with Mr Zuma’s MK, which also supports land expropriation, and says there is a need to distribute farmland on an “equal basis among the farming population”.

But to change the constitution, a two-thirds majority is needed and again the ANC, EFF and MK fall just short of the 267 seats needed – they have 256 seats between them.

While the ANC is opposed to constitutional amendments, it accepts that the current land-ownership patterns need to be tackled.

In an interview with South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, former President Kgalema Motlanthe, a close ally of Mr Ramaphosa, said the “land question” was a “source of national grievance”.

His comments suggest there could be room for agreement with the EFF, and possibly even MK, on the issue.

The DA strongly opposes a deal between its three rivals, saying it would be a “Doomsday Coalition” that would turn South Africa into a “Zimbabwe or Venezuela”.

“The Doomsday Coalition will plunge this country into ethnic and racial conflict the likes of which it has never witnessed before,” the party says.

But some ANC officials hold the opposite view – that stability would be threatened if MK is excluded, given its electoral success, which has made it the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal.

KwaZulu-Natal is South Africa’s second-most populous province, and is often described as the economic artery of the nation because of its ports.

It is also politically the most volatile province, with a history of violence – more than 300 people died in riots after Mr Zuma was sent to prison in 2021.

He was convicted of contempt of court for defying an order to co-operate with an official inquiry into corruption during his nine-year presidency, which ended in 2018.

ANC members in KwaZulu-Natal point out that with another court case looming – Mr Zuma is due to stand trial next year on charges of corruption over a 1999 arms deal – there is a real risk of a fresh wave of violence.

They therefore feel some sort of deal needs to be reached with him to draw a line under the past, and to recognise his status as a former president – especially as he has demonstrated that he commands 15% of the national vote.