Sky News analysis: Reform surge in estimated national vote with Labour and Tories at all-time low | Politics News

Based on an analysis of 1,067 of 1,400 voting areas, the current national share estimate puts Reform on 32%. 

This is the first time that a party other than Conservative or Labour has led at this stage of the votes being counted.

Labour is currently placed second on 19% with the Conservatives only one point behind on 18%. This is the lowest total for both parties individually and combined since 1973 when these estimates were first calculated.

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The Liberal Democrats have 16% with the Greens on 7%.

For each cycle of local elections, we collect the votes cast in those elections and then use them to construct a nationwide vote.

Normally, this compares the changes in the current year’s local vote shares with the picture from four years before when the same councils were voting.

This year, however, we are also comparing the votes cast at last year’s general election with those cast in precisely the same areas voting on 1 May.

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Parliamentary constituencies that cross council boundaries where all or only some electors had a local vote in 2025 are excluded from this analysis.

Combining these separate analyses acknowledges that the choices available to voters in local elections are, in some areas, different to the choices available in parliamentary constituencies.

On this basis, the current national vote estimate sees Reform up 17 points compared to the general election.

Labour falls from 35% to just 19% – with the Conservatives dropping from 24% to 18%. The Liberal Democrats add an extra three percentage points with the Greens unchanged.