Private schools: When will VAT be added to fees?

Removing the exemption does not necessarily mean fees will go up by 20%.

All private schools are different, and some may decide to put up their fees more than others.

The average cost of private school fees has risen by 20% in real terms since 2010, and by 55% since 2003, even without VAT, the IFS says. However, the proportion of children being privately educated over the period has not fallen.

The IFS suggests there could be a small initial drop-off in pupil numbers.

Over a longer period, though, it estimates private school attendance could fall by between 3% and 7%, or 20,000 to 40,000 pupils. This represents a small share of the total pupil population, which is more than nine million in England alone.

However, the impact on private school attendance is unlikely to be spread evenly, with a steeper fall in some schools than others.

The Independent Schools Council (ISC), which represents more than 1,400 private schools, believes the policy may see the closure of smaller institutions, which “operate on tight margins”.

It also warned that the policy could make private schools “more exclusive”, cutting their number of fee-reducing bursaries.