Premier League teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the last nine seasons were guaranteed safety from relegation.
In the 20-team Premier League era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points needed for survival, or the number of points the 18th place team finished plus one, is 35.53 – rounded up to 36 points.
No team in the last nine campaigns have earned 36 points and been relegated.
In the 30 Premier League seasons that have had 38 games a season for each club, 36 points would have ensured survival 60% of the time.
This season is expected to be a familiar tale. After 12 rounds of games, 18th is currently on track to finish on 35 points, meaning 36 points would ensure survival for a 10th consecutive campaign.
That rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points.
West Ham hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers picked up 42 points but were still relegated.
The safety thresholds for last two seasons have been significantly lower due to newly-promoted teams struggling in the Premier League. The last two seasons have seen 26 and 27 points be enough to seal safety respectively.
Only once prior to the 2023-24 season has a total below 30 points been enough to seal survival.
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