Pakistan has locked down Imran Khan’s stronghold – but it could backfire

But Pakistan has plenty to contend with. Militancy is rising. The country was ranked number one in the Global Terrorism Index 2026 as the country which had been affected most.

The country is at loggerheads with two neighbours; it has repeatedly hit Afghanistan with air strikes accusing the Afghan Taliban government of harbouring militant groups, a claim it denies. It would take little to reignite its long-running simmering conflict with India.

Meanwhile, it has promised to help Saudi Arabia defend itself against attacks as the conflict against the Houthis has become increasingly dangerous.

Short of solving one problem, some have warned this state of emergency could lead to more challenges. It risks increasing political instability, with Islamabad taking responsibility for a province without a buffer – the provincial government – they can blame.

“I would argue that this could actually backfire,” Kugelman says. “You’re playing with fire because if this move ends up adding to the anger and the discontent among so many there, then you have a very big problem on your hands.”

“It is reckless, given the challenges, multiple challenges the country is facing,” Hussain says. He fears that more of these powers could be used across Pakistan.

Attempts to combat militancy with more active army operations could come with its own perils too, Sheikh argues.

“If they’re going to launch these operations, they’re going to have to be prepared to accept casualties of members of the armed forces,” she says. If those are significant, it could lead to questions inside the military institution, she adds.

Pakistan, with its history of military coups, has examples in its past where removing elected governments, whether provincial or national, can turn sour.

“It’s not that senior people in the PML-N [the party in federal government] don’t realise that some of these things can come back and haunt them in the future,” Noor says.

“Similarly I think to some extent the PTI realises that they will not be able to hold a protest and get Imran Khan out. I think that’s the most unfortunate part of this mess that we’re in, that we are going into it with our eyes wide open.

“Everybody realises that this is a train crash but somehow you can’t stop it.”