Nigel Farage hails ‘unbelievable’ early results for Reform UK

However, the figure is highly uncertain, as the model suggests there are many places where the party only has a relatively low chance of winning.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said Reform had benefited from a significant fall in the Conservative vote in seats the party had previously held, as well as advancing most in areas where people voted Leave in the 2016 referendum.

In an early sign of Reform’s success in winning over former Tory voters, the first two results of the night – in Blyth and Ashington and in Houghton and Sunderland South – saw the party beat the Conservatives by more than 4,000 vote.

The third result of the night, in Sunderland Central, followed a similar pattern, with the Reform candidate more than 5,000 votes ahead of his Tory opponent.

Reacting to the results, Mr Farage posted on social media: “The revolt against the establishment is under way.”

In a video he said the first two results from north-east England were “more than any possible prediction or projection”.

“It means we’re going to win seats, many, many seats I think right now across the country,” he said.

“This is going to be six million votes-plus. This folks, is huge.”

Among Reform’s top targets is Clacton in Essex, where Mr Farage is hoping to overturn a Conservative majority of 24,702.

The exit poll suggests a 99%-plus likelihood that Mr Farage will gain the seat.

Meanwhile, Lee Anderson, who became Reform’s first MP when he defected from the Conservatives in March, is also seeking to hold on to his Ashfield seat in Nottinghamshire.

Dr David Bull, the party’s co-deputy leader, told BBC Radio 4 if the exit poll was right “this is an historic breakthrough”.

He suggested so-called “shy Reformers” could be behind the party gaining more seats than expected, with some people unwilling to tell pollsters they were planning to vote for the party.

He added: “It is the beginning of a revolt. It is the beginning of the people saying we don’t like what’s going on in Westminster.”