Mozambique conflict: Is it too early to withdraw Sadc forces?

The IS-affiliated al-Shabab group in Mozambique – which is not linked to the group with the same name in Somalia – has been active in Cabo Delgado since 2017.

Its insurgents have killed hundreds of people, displaced communities and burnt towns and villages.

They have been fighting for control of the region that is rich in natural gas and minerals such as hydrocarbons, graphite and rubies.

In July 2021, French energy giant Total Energies was forced to suspend its $20bn (£16bn) liquified natural gas project following a shocking attack on the town of Palma.

After the deployment of Sadc and Rwandan troops the same year, aid agencies and the government reported that security had improved in some areas and normal life was gradually returning.

Unfortunately, this progress was short-lived.

Since December 2023 attacks have been on the rise again.

More than 110,000 people have been forced to flee their homes, according to the IOM.

Tomas Queface, a researcher at Mozambique’s Cabo Ligado website that monitors the violence, said the militants succeeded in holding Macomia for two days by recruiting more fighters, including children.

A report by campaign group Human Rights Watch mentioned two people from one family who spotted their 13-year-old nephew looting alongside the jihadists during the attack.

Mozambique’s northern neighbours are eyeing what is happening nervously.

In 2020, the jihadists attacked villages over the border in Tanzania, killing around 25 people, looting shops and burning down homes.

Since then, Tanzania has heightened security by imposing curfews in some border villages, increasing patrols and restricting movement between the two countries.

Mr Kweka said that although this strategy has been successful it has been expensive. Tanzania’s defence budget has increased by 10% each year since 2021.

Meanwhile, there are growing concerns that if the Cabo Delgado insurgency gains further momentum, other neighbouring countries, like Malawi, could be affected if insurgents slip across the border, according to analyst Meron Elias.

She said there was some evidence of regional links developing further between al-Shabab in Mozambique and the Allied Defence Forces, an IS affiliate operating in DR Congo and parts of Uganda – though the level of co-operation is unclear.

Regional security experts say that Mozambique’s armed forces could secure a military victory if they were strengthened further, and this is not the time to be withdrawing foreign troops.

But the only long-term solution is to address the social and economic challenges experienced in the north of the country, where living standards are lower than the south, fuelling complaints of discrimination, which is exploited by the jihadists.