Mortgage rates over 7% are throttling homebuyer demand

A key measure of home-purchase applications fell for the fifth week in a row as mortgage rates continued to hover above 7%, throttling demand among would-be buyers.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) index of mortgage applications fell 5.6% for the week ended Feb. 23, compared with a 10.6% drop the previous week, according to new data published Wednesday. 

The data also showed that the average rate on the popular 30-year loan decreased slightly to 7.04% last week. While that is down from a peak of 8% in October, it remains noticeably higher than the start of the year.

“Higher rates in recent weeks have stalled activity,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.

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A display home at the Cold Spring Barbera Homes subdivision in Loudonville, New York on Wednesday Nov. 8, 2023. (Photographer: Angus Mordant/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Housing demand has ground to a halt as rates move higher. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 5% from the previous week. Application volume is down 12% compared with the same time last year.

Demand for refinancing also fell last week, declining 7% from the previous week, according to the survey. Compared with the same time last year, refinance applications are down 1%.

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The interest rate-sensitive housing market has cooled rapidly as a result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign. Policymakers lifted the benchmark federal funds rate 11 times over the course of 16 meetings in an attempt to crush stubborn inflation and slow the economy. 

A home for sale in Los Gatos, California, on Feb. 7, 2024.  (Photographer: Loren Elliott/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Officials signaled during their most recent policy-setting meeting in January that they are done raising interest rates, but are not quite ready to pivot to cutting them yet. Investors had previously penciled in a series of aggressive rate reductions beginning as early as March. 

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Now, most economists expect the cuts to begin in May or June amid signs that inflation remains abnormally high.

Higher mortgage rates are not only dampening consumer demand, they are limiting inventory. That is because sellers who locked in a low mortgage rate before the pandemic have been reluctant to sell with rates continuing to hover near a two-decade high, leaving few options for eager would-be buyers.

Available home supply remains down a stunning 34.3% from the typical amount before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, according to a separate report published by Realtor.com.